I can hardly believe I’m saying it, but: welcome to December!
Most years when we tip over into the 12th month, these sorts of market update tend to focus on the year that’s been, as the nation settles into its festive lull, all thoughts of moving – or even thoughts about thinking about moving – banished to January.
Estate agents up and down the land usually report a distinct lack of new instructions or any viewing activity to speak of, and they focus instead on calming the frayed nerves of the few stressed and urgent clients still clamouring to exchange before the great Christmas shutdown…
I say, ‘most years’. This year, however, is something of an exception.
The market is suddenly rather lively. New instructions are up, new applicant registrations are up, and sales agreed numbers are already starting to follow.
But why?
In the run?up to the Budget, drawn out speculation about tax changes weighed on housing market activity. In a typical year we expect to see the market pick up after the summer holidays. This year, that seasonal bounce was muted. Listing numbers did increase this autumn, but buyers became cautious. Rumours about an introduction of stamp duty relief began to take hold: buyers wondered if they might save money by waiting until after the Budget.
As well as this, rumours abounded that a new property-based wealth tax would affect properties over £500,000. According to Zoopla, 24% of properties in this country would fall into that bracket. That would translate roughly as 24% of sales going through, and it is no wonder we saw buyers reluctant to push the button without clarity first – it was bound to happen, and of course more notably in areas like Edgware where our average value, according to Rightmove data, sits at £562,543.
And so, we saw activity drop between September and the end of November, not just here in Edgware, or even just across London, but across much of the country.
Research by Knight Frank has shown that sales agreed numbers fell, with near?term sales forecasts dropping also. It reflects buyers and sellers choosing to sit on their hands until the Chancellor had spoken.
At the same time, analysis of two important house price indices, Halifax and Nationwide, did show some modest month-on-month price growth during this same period, but Budget speculation was blamed in reporting for weak real?terms growth, with uncertainty acting as a brake on momentum.
It all meant that the autumn bounce we normally see from September through to the end of November felt conspicuous by its absence, to say the least.
Once the Budget landed – with no major new impediments or giveaways for home movers – agents and market commentators began to report a release of some of that pent?up demand within just days.
It is early days, still, but by Monday this week Knight Frank’s research team highlighted a surge in their weekly sales numbers. According to their Head of Residential, Tim Hyatt, their teams here in London, where we have been more affected by pre-Budget malaise than other parts of the country, experienced double the sales numbers compared to the same week last year. There seems to be a sense of expectancy that sales volumes will recover over the coming months as uncertainty fades.
Nationally, this is already translating into rising numbers of market appraisals and stronger buyer enquiries as December gets under way, suggesting both sides of the market are coming back out in force – sellers with little to fear, buyers finding that a lack of stamp duty relief hasn’t affected their desire to move home.
Is this positive property market activity just a blip? As mentioned, it’s early days, but there are one or two points to look at which might give us reason to think brighter horizons are lurking, in general.
Firstly, top of the news headlines this week is the question of whether Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer misled everyone about the state of the UK economy, which turns out to be in better shape than pre-Budget announcements and statements had led people to believe. Whilst the OBR had reported to the government that productivity is down, they had also said that lower GDP had been offset by wage increases, offering more fiscal headroom than expected.
Not comfortable questions for Reeves or Starmer – but for the sake of balance, a senior OBR official, Prof. David Miles, has stated that the government’s stance that ‘public finances were very challenging’ in the run up to the Budget, is still true enough. In any case, this isn’t a political point I’m making. One way or another, the wider point is that there is perhaps that little chink of light; an underlying bit of positive news… or at least, some ‘not so negative’ news. The economic picture may not be so dire after all.
Of course, there are issues – issues that we need to acknowledge if we are having conversations about how the property market will or won’t move. The improved fiscal headroom the OBR had reported to the government – the ‘better news’ – was still wafer-thin at £4.2 billion. Nevertheless, those higher wages the OBR has highlighted as an offsetting factor are at the same time leading to generally increased consumer confidence.
We can see this in the retail data that has been released relating to Black Friday and Cyber Monday – or indeed, the whole as a Friday-to-Monday phenomenon. Reuters reports that Brits spent £3.8 billion during these four days, a 4.2% increase on the same period last year.
It is an indicator that despite undeniable cost of living challenges, people feel more confident than headlines have otherwise alluded to. And when consumer confidence is up, we tend to see it reflected in property market performance.
GDP remains a concern and the labour market has cooled, but historically both remain in a relatively strong position. Recent ONS?based reporting shows wage growth easing back but still running at around mid?single?digit annual rates, with unemployment edging higher yet remaining low by long?run standards – creeping around 5% unemployment, but in turn meaning that 95% of people do remain in employment.
Crucially, when it comes to the housing market, analysts are expecting a Bank of England rate cut this month (December 18th), and expect at least one more reduction during the first three months of 2026 – a backdrop that is already prompting lenders to review and sharpen mortgage pricing.
The market pressed pause – maybe for several months, but certainly weeks – due to a bout of pre?Budget nerves, and is now starting to move again – potentially with a bit of a vengeance.
House prices are broadly stable – up 3% over 12 months across the UK at £273,000 according to the most up to date ONS data available, and with average rents up 5.5%. In Edgware however, as one would expect, we have seen trends more in line with the general London property market and the market in the South East of England, which has been widely reported as having been more subdued than elsewhere. Our own local property prices have fallen over 12 months by around 3% according to Rightmove data. We have definitely felt the strength of market forces, here in North London.
That said, those expectations of lower interest rates are building, mortgage lenders are sharpening their pencils in efforts to attract new business, and in just these mere few days since the Budget announcement confirmed we were going to pay more in tax, we have nevertheless seen reports of stronger buyer and seller engagement – as Knight Frank noted, even here in London.
This is not the typical picture for December, but it comes down to that pent-up demand being given a release.
This month has the potential to easily outperform the usual year?end slowdown, and with reduced numbers of properties listed – as is normal for the season – those who are on the market now, or who are at least ready to market in the early new year, will benefit from a quickly swelling pool of active and motivated buyers.
Conditions are not booming – that is not what we are seeing; but the window between now and spring 2026 looks like a very attractive moment to put a property on the market, before renewed competition catches up.
Which all makes for a much more serious and business-minded property market update than we would normally open December with. Of course, for those people out there motivated to get a sale agreed and make a move, I’m sure a bit of seriousness and sincerity is appreciated.
It is certainly no time for estate agents to slow down and switch off. The market is alive and it is bubbling – and here at Petermans we are here to make sure that we capitalise for people moving home in Edgware.
We are required by law to conduct anti-money laundering checks on all those selling or buying a property. Whilst we retain responsibility for ensuring checks and any ongoing monitoring are carried out correctly, the initial checks are carried out on our behalf by Lifetime Legal who will contact you once you have agreed to instruct us in your sale or had an offer accepted on a property you wish to buy. The cost of these checks is £60 (incl. VAT), which covers the cost of obtaining relevant data and any manual checks and monitoring which might be required. This fee will need to be paid by you in advance of us publishing your property (in the case of a vendor) or issuing a memorandum of sale (in the case of a buyer), directly to Lifetime Legal, and is non-refundable. We will receive some of the fee taken by Lifetime Legal to compensate for its role in the provision of these checks.